Our dinner

- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

Location:Paterson Rd,Singapore,Singapore

Recaps

1. No. American citizens please do not think that with the death of Osama, it will mean some sort of curse-breaker to the decade of bad news.

2. The PAP is divided into 2 parts. One is the old guards, the other is the one that is currently under attack. As we think of the source while drinking the water, we give credits and thanks to whoever is due, not because he or she is in the same party. As such, vote with your heart.

3. Apple has just refreshed the iMac line with the new sandy processor a d thunderbolt. My current iMac can probably last me another 3 yrs. Hopefully by that time, thunderbolt will be a mature technology.

4. With reference to pt 1, US has another 2 weeks to come to a consensus to vote for higher debt limit. Not that happy liao le right?


- Posted using BlogPress from my iPad

Location:Strathmore Ave,Singapore,Singapore

Political Apathy

Even when the whole nation is on an exuberance mood amidst all the political awakening, Tanjong Pagar GRC is the only ward not contested. I realised that my 2 other new homes lie within TP GRC, so I still don't get to vote even if I change my address now. I have stayed largely silent on the current state of affairs, refusing to join in the debate of which party is funkier and with more booze. I am also not going to list out the merits and demerits of the current political system. The truth is, Singapore cannot survive without PAP. To clarify my afore-said statement, Singapore cannot survive a period without any certainty and good governmentship. ie, Singapore cannot boot the incumbent and expect WP or SDP, or for that matter, a coalition of PAP, WP or SDP to continue to steadily steer the Singapore Ship in the right direction. Eventually they will. But what about the time in the middle?

I have read all the pros and cons, the Tin Pei Ling, the fight to death in Aljunied and the freudian slips by PAP. As much as there are pent up frustrations, there are also silent agreements on not rocking the ship. I do agree the need for more voices and to check on the Government. I find it amusing to read on the news that the Government is actually caring for us. Now.

How the Government is going to review the S$8k for first-time HDB buyers, how the MOE is looking into certain key issues, and not forgetting the promises of upgrades. This is not how you run a country. This is just politics. This is the part that saddens me. I have read how the old guards like Goh Keng Swee, Toh Chin Chye, Devan Nair, played the game of Running a Country, rather than politics. Their policies are consistent and did not miraculously appear during the campaigning week.

I am also worried about the 4G leaders. You are saying our next PM is among the current nominees? God. I don't need a political degree to know something is wrong somewhere.

I am also worried about the current leaders. Why are there no more the likes of Teo Chee Hean or Jayakumar?

Just like a canary in a mine, I am really thinking hard.

Come 7th of May, I will still go for my Deutche Klurs. And what may come on 8th of May?

Hungryish

- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

Location:Paterson Rd,Singapore,Singapore

Hurray Osama is dead. Now can we focus on the economy?

News of the death of Osama reverberated around the western hemisphere and some press said in his death, he managed to "galvanize" the American citizens. WIth so much bad news for the past 10 years, election of Bush Jr, 911, Katrina, Lehman, Bear Stern, end of series like Ugly Betty, Michael Scott leaving the Office, debts and more debts, surely the death of Osama meant something?

Nope. The death of Osama is insignificant. Even with his absence for largely a good 6 to 8 years, the extremists continued their insurgencies. Osama was merely a figurehead, which can be easily replaced. His death did brought some sort of closure to the 911, albeit 10 years late. And the infamous "Job Accomplished" fiasco can finally be laid to a rest. Yes. The job is done. What the Americans now need to know is that the amount of resources that fueled the hatred and blood in the Middle-east should come to a stop. US should pull out fully from the Afghanistan and Iraq. All resources should be diverted back to the US. The so-called "Global Interests" initiatives should be revisited and the focus should now be squarely within the US soil. It might be painful to give up its global leadership position. But just look at Libya, US nudged France to take on the fore-front role in leading the air-strikes. Lesser attentions are given to Africa, where the Chinese government is actively buying up precious oil fields. And people are listening more to what the Chinese has to say rather than what Barack Obama is saying, just look at all the recent conventions.

The world has entered into a new era of multi-laterialism. As such, I believe that the US has little reasons to hold on to its antiqued role of being a world police. The US government will need to reallocate all the resources back to the American economy and the people. Take a few steps back, so that it can advance more in the future. Fix the trains, fix the bridges, fix the educational system, fix the economy, fix the housing woes, fix the Social security, fix the medi-plans.

Oh, say, can you see, by the dawn's early light,  What so proudly we hailed at the twilight's last gleaming?  Whose broad stripes and bright stars, thru the perilous fight,  O'er the ramparts we watched, were so gallantly streaming?  And the rockets' red glare, the bombs bursting in air,  Gave proof through the night that our flag was still there.  O say, does that star-spangled banner yet wave  O'er the land of the free and the home of the brave?

 

US' insatiable hunger for debt

I am not trying to sound like an economist or an academia. I am just worried about the debt that the US is silently stockpiling in its backyard. It is amazing that the world is largely silent on this. Of course, there are voices about cutting the "federal debts", stopping the "QE2" and becoming more "competitive and productive" . However, the fundamentals go deeper than that. The recent debt-ceiling debacle revealed a weak Congress. The press and the tea-partiers missed the point. Cutting the federal debt is not enough. After the 8 years under Bush, US has accumulated some much debt that interest repayments alone can easily wipe out any tax revenue for the year. That means, US will have no money for anything else. Every single cents is used to pay off the interest on the debt. So currently how is US managing this nonsensical fiscal mess? Yes. By borrowing even more to fund daily operations.

QE2 is expected to cease by June 2011. This will invariantly drive  interest rates up, especially long-term rates. Investors and businesses hate uncertainty in the economy, as such, the interest rates will be driven up higher after June 2011. The current interest rates are starting to creep up as the inevitable reality of the end of cheap money is just a few months away. Higher interest rates will mean that borrowings are more expensive. And add that to the current interests that US is paying off. Stopping any future QEs is a double-edged sword. No QE will mean that USD will be driven up, and it mean more expensive exports, and it will impact on the bottom-lines of many US companies, lesser hirings, lesser spendings, lesser consumers confidence and lesser taxes. We are back with lesser taxes. And lesser taxes mean US will have to borrow more debts. On the other hand, the more money the FED prints to flood the economy, the value of the Dollar will decline as the supply increases. With a declining dollar, in the short-run, US' creditors like China, will first of all, stop purchasing more of US debts (since the value of debts are declining in value) and the creditors will swap out US debts with other forms of store of value like gold, commodities or oil. US will be forced into bankruptcy. That is bad. Just look at Greece.

Increasing a country's productivity and competitiveness is on the "to-do" list of almost every government. However, there are many factors for this "increase" to take place. Some of the factors are education, technological advances, infrastructures and political stability. Yet, perhaps one of the most important factor is the human factor. Questions like are people willing to work that extra 30 hours a week? Are people willing to go for skills upgrading? Are businesses built for long-term productivity gains or just short-terms profitability? USA is clearly unable to juggle all these at the current moment. With an empty coffer (nope I don't consider "debts" as money), the White House and the Congress are severely limited by what they can do. They have to ration out the available resources. And like a crack addict, the Land of the Free craves for more debts so that they can spend on the "nows". Let the future President and the future Congress and the future generation worry about the mounting interest repayments (and I am not talking about debt repayments).

This discussion only touched on the surface of the reality of the US economic outlook and it is a grim one. However, I believe in cycles. The Greek empire gave way to the Roman Republic which finally collapsed by early 5th century, which in turn saw the rise of golden period in China of the Tang dynasty in the 6th century, and we have Gengis Khan's empire stretching from Europe to China sometime in the 12th century. The rise of Renaissance in Europe in the 14th century and during the same century, the wealth of the Chinese was demonstrated by the 7 trips of Cheng Ho. The Age of Colonization gave rise of the British Empire, where the Sun never sets. And the USA became the leading man in the 20th century after WWII.

Many said that the limelight will once again return to China. The Beijing Olympics and the Shanghai World Expo have placed the red carpet for the eventual return of China to the front-page. Just like the yester-centuries of the Han,Tang, Ming and the early Qing dynasties. Or will it?